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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 30 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 16-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to NYJ 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.30 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model