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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 34

Buffalo Bills 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 15-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. ** Injury Update: NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model