Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 30 – New York Jets 3

(6:50) 16-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to NYJ 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 46 for 11 yards (41-R.Gilliam; 42-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.24 EP
54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 83, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model