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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 65

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 19 for 9 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball; 51-F.Mauigoa).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.16 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model