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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 53

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 30

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.55 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model