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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 32

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.08 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP