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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 48

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 30

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 32-I.Davis to BUF 42 for 6 yards (98-T.Sanders).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.42 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model