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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 50

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 9

What Actually Happened

(8:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert FUMBLES (Aborted) at LAC 45, recovered by LAC-12-D.Davis at LAC 44. 12-D.Davis to LAC 44 for no gain (36-K.Kelly).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.35 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model