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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(1:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to TB 47 for 15 yards (8-C.Gardner-Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.39 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EP