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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Monday 2025-09-15 · 19:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

TB
66.0%
HOU
34.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: C.J. Stroud (HOU) -0.075 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.250 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU defense: -0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 26
–
HOU 20
Projected margin: TB by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

TB

Chris Godwin Jr. WR Out Ankle
Tristan Wirfs T Out Knee
Luke Goedeke G Questionable Foot
Christian Izien S Questionable Oblique
Benjamin Morrison CB Questionable Quadricep

HOU

Braxton Berrios WR Out Hamstring
Christian Kirk WR Out Hamstring
Jake Andrews C Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 20
–
HOU 19

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:58 TD HOU (11:58) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TB 0 – HOU 6
  • Q1 07:17 TD TB (7:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 81-R.Miller for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – HOU 7
  • Q1 03:29 FG HOU (3:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. TB 7 – HOU 10
  • Q2 09:48 TD TB (9:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – HOU 10
  • Q4 05:27 FG HOU (5:27) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. TB 14 – HOU 13
  • Q4 02:16 TD HOU (2:16) 21-N.Chubb right guard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 14 – HOU 19
  • Q4 00:09 TD TB (:09) 1-R.White right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – HOU 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (3:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:40) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to TB 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to HOU 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 30 for 16 yards (81-R.Miller).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 14 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 42%

    (:38) 6-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to HOU 29, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-81-R.Miller.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 11 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:11) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to TB 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to HOU 35, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Noel to HOU 33 for -2 yards (29-C.Izien).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:17) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to TB 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-K.Johnson to TB 21 for 6 yards (35-J.Hansen).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%

    (1:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (11:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 12-N.Collins.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:23) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 43-J.Johnson, Center-86-E.Deckers, RECOVERED by HOU-84-J.Watson at TB 36. 84-J.Watson to TB 35 for 1 yard (26-K.Merriweather).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 73%

    (5:27) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 16 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to HOU 21, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at TB 26 for 53 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to TB 47 for 15 yards (8-C.Gardner-Johnson).