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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 17

Houston Texans 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.59 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model