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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.32 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model