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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 79

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to HOU 35, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Noel to HOU 33 for -2 yards (29-C.Izien).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.83 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model