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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 58

Houston Texans 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to TB 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model