Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Houston Texans 10

(:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to HOU 29, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-81-R.Miller.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP

75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.18 EP
25% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -2.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model