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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 1
Houston Texans 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
What Actually Happened
(11:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 12-N.Collins.
The Three Options
GO
+3.89 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.88 EP
KICK
+1.63 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT
-0.26 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
