Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Houston Texans 10

(2:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to HOU 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 30 for 16 yards (81-R.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.42 EP
60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model