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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Houston Texans
4th & 14 at the 48
Houston Texans 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
What Actually Happened
(:38) 6-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.49 EP
-
27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.04 EP
- 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.80 EP
KICK
-0.19 EP
- 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
- 58% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT
-0.10 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.10 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
