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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 12 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 39-J.Romo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.50 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model