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Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2025-09-14 · 20:20 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

ATL
56.2%
MIN
43.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: J.J. McCarthy (MIN) -0.393 vs Michael Penix (ATL) +0.144 EPA/dropback
  • MIN offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • J.J. McCarthy (MIN) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

ATL 21
–
MIN 20
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

ATL

Jamal Agnew WR Out Groin
Younghoe Koo K Out Not injury related - other
Jordan Fuller S Out Knee
Casey Washington WR Out Concussion
Jack Nelson T Out Calf
DeMarcco Hellams S Questionable Hamstring
Billy Bowman Jr. CB Questionable Shoulder
James Pearce Jr. LB Questionable Groin

MIN

Andrew Van Ginkel DE Out Concussion
Jeff Okudah CB Out Concussion
Christian Darrisaw T Out Knee
Harrison Smith S Questionable Illness
Austin Keys LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 22
–
MIN 6

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:15 FG ATL (11:15) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 06:51 FG ATL (6:51) 39-J.Romo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 6 – MIN 0
  • Q2 07:08 FG MIN (7:08) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. ATL 6 – MIN 3
  • Q2 00:28 FG ATL (:28) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 9 – MIN 3
  • Q2 00:02 FG MIN (:02) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. ATL 9 – MIN 6
  • Q3 06:20 FG ATL (6:20) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 12 – MIN 6
  • Q4 11:21 FG ATL (11:21) 39-J.Romo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 15 – MIN 6
  • Q4 03:25 TD ATL (3:25) 25-T.Allgeier right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 21 – MIN 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (11:15) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (9:26) (No Huddle) 9-J.McCarthy FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 36, and recovers at MIN 36. 9-J.McCarthy to MIN 36 for no gain (55-K.Elliss).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (6:51) 39-J.Romo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 11 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:42) 17-R.Wright punts 59 yards to ATL 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (7:08) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:31) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 13, Center-49-L.McCullough. 4-M.Price to MIN 13 for no gain (28-M.Ford).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (:28) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (14:11) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to ATL 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 35-N.Brooks.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 96%

    (6:20) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (4:05) 9-J.McCarthy up the middle to MIN 41 for 1 yard (90-D.Onyemata).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:35) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to ATL 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 35-N.Brooks.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:10) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to MIN 42, Center-49-L.McCullough. 4-M.Price to MIN 48 for 6 yards (23-D.Hellams; 42-J.Woods).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 18 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 71%

    (11:21) 39-J.Romo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (9:47) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to ATL 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 35-N.Brooks.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 88 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (:28) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 42, Center-49-L.McCullough. 4-M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-28-M.Ford at MIN 44.