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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Atlanta Falcons 15

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to ATL 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 35-N.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.51 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 30, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP