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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.01 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 20, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.08 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model