4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(9:26) (No Huddle) 9-J.McCarthy FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 36, and recovers at MIN 36. 9-J.McCarthy to MIN 36 for no gain (55-K.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.33 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 64, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 22, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model