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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Atlanta Falcons 9

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to ATL 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 35-N.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.75 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP