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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 87

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 17-R.Wright punts 59 yards to ATL 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.38 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 87, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 45, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model