Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 88

Atlanta Falcons 22 – Minnesota Vikings 6

(:28) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 42, Center-49-L.McCullough. 4-M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-28-M.Ford at MIN 44.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.01 EP
26% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 88, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model