4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Atlanta Falcons 12

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to ATL 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 35-N.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.81 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model