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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 18

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Denver Broncos 28

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 3-S.Shrader 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.84 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 18, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model