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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2025-09-14 · 16:05 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DEN
52.3%
IND
47.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DEN: Daniel Jones (IND) -0.067 vs Bo Nix (DEN) +0.135 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DEN defense: -0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 24
–
IND 23
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

DEN

Dre Greenlaw LB Out Quadricep
Nate Adkins TE Out Ankle

IND

Charvarius Ward CB Out Concussion
Jaylon Jones CB Out Hamstring
Tyler Goodson RB Questionable Elbow
Laiatu Latu DE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 28
–
IND 29

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:54 FG IND (11:54) 3-S.Shrader 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. DEN 0 – IND 3
  • Q1 08:30 TD DEN (8:30) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 19-M.Mims for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – IND 3
  • Q1 04:22 FG IND (4:22) 3-S.Shrader 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. DEN 7 – IND 6
  • Q2 14:16 TD IND (14:16) 17-D.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – IND 12
  • Q2 10:46 TD DEN (10:46) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 11-T.Franklin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – IND 13
  • Q2 03:06 TD DEN (3:06) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass short right to 82-A.Trautman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – IND 13
  • Q2 01:36 TD IND (1:36) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 28-J.Taylor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 21 – IND 19
  • Q3 11:17 TD DEN (11:17) 27-J.Dobbins right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 27 – IND 20
  • Q3 05:46 FG IND (5:46) 3-S.Shrader 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. DEN 28 – IND 23
  • Q4 08:37 FG IND (8:37) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. DEN 28 – IND 26
  • Q4 00:00 FG IND (:00) 3-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. DEN 28 – IND 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (11:54) 3-S.Shrader 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (4:22) 3-S.Shrader 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (2:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to IND 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 6-A.Gould to IND 15 for 4 yards (48-M.Fraboni; 50-G.Wallow).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 37%

    (7:32) (Shotgun) 84-T.Warren left tackle to 50 for no gain (92-D.Tillman).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:29) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to IND 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 6-A.Gould to IND 22 for 8 yards (26-D.Key). PENALTY on IND-32-D.Scott, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at IND 14.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 13 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (5:46) 3-S.Shrader 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 50%

    (2:50) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to IND 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 37%

    (13:06) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 84-T.Warren [52-J.Elliss].

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (8:37) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 89%

    (3:19) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.