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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 50

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Shotgun) 84-T.Warren left tackle to 50 for no gain (92-D.Tillman).

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.84 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model