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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 64

Denver Broncos 21 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(:29) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to IND 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 6-A.Gould to IND 22 for 8 yards (26-D.Key). PENALTY on IND-32-D.Scott, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at IND 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.23 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model