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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 58

Denver Broncos 7 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to IND 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 6-A.Gould to IND 15 for 4 yards (48-M.Fraboni; 50-G.Wallow).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP