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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 10

Indianapolis Colts 23 – Denver Broncos 28

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.16 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 10, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model