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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 50

Indianapolis Colts 23 – Denver Broncos 28

What Actually Happened

(13:06) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 84-T.Warren [52-J.Elliss].

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model