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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 11

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 3-S.Shrader 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.10 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP