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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 31 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to PIT 9, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -1.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model