Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 86

Carolina Panthers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 13

(1:04) 6-S.Martin punts 60 yards to ARI 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 4-G.Dortch to CAR 45 for 29 yards (82-T.Tremble).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.60 EP
55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 86, worth -5.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model