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Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2025-09-14 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CAR
36.9%
ARI
63.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ARI: Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.119 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.052 EPA/dropback
  • CAR defense: +0.174 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI defense: +0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 23
–
ARI 27
Projected margin: ARI by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CAR

Tershawn Wharton DT Out Hamstring
Ikem Ekwonu T Questionable Illness

ARI

Tip Reiman TE Out Foot
Cody Simon LB Out Concussion
Will Hernandez G Questionable Knee
Blake Gillikin P Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 22
–
ARI 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:36 TD ARI (13:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 19 for -11 yards (10-J.Sweat). FUMBLES (10-J.Sweat) [10-J.Sweat], touched at CAR 19, RECOVERED by ARI-25-Z.Collins at CAR 3. 25-Z.Collins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – ARI 6
  • Q1 05:22 FG ARI (5:22) 38-C.Ryland 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. CAR 0 – ARI 10
  • Q1 00:53 FG CAR (:53) 10-R.Fitzgerald 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 3 – ARI 10
  • Q2 02:00 FG ARI (2:00) 38-C.Ryland 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. CAR 3 – ARI 13
  • Q2 00:09 TD ARI (:09) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – ARI 19
  • Q3 09:27 TD ARI (9:27) 71-J.Gaines and 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 6-J.Conner left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – ARI 26
  • Q3 02:10 TD CAR (2:10) 9-B.Young pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [25-Z.Collins]. CAR 9 – ARI 27
  • Q4 05:12 TD CAR (5:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 15 – ARI 27
  • Q4 02:00 TD CAR (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-3-B.Baker was injured during the play. ARI-21-G.Williams was injured during the play. CAR 21 – ARI 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (5:22) 38-C.Ryland 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (:53) 10-R.Fitzgerald 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:13) 12-B.Gillikin punts 61 yards to CAR 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 24 for 12 yards (36-K.Crawford).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 50%

    (7:30) 6-S.Martin punts 35 yards to ARI 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-53-C.Cherelus.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 84%

    (2:00) 38-C.Ryland 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:04) 6-S.Martin punts 60 yards to ARI 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 4-G.Dortch to CAR 45 for 29 yards (82-T.Tremble).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:30) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to ARI 42 for 14 yards (34-J.Thompson; 0-W.Johnson).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 35%

    (14:15) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to CAR 49 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (5:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:44) 12-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to CAR 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-36-K.Crawford.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 16 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:21) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 87-B.Tremayne to ARI 44 for 26 yards (34-J.Thompson) [25-Z.Collins].

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 15 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 67%

    (:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at ARI 46 for -8 yards (93-C.Campbell).