Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Carolina Panthers 3

(12:13) 12-B.Gillikin punts 61 yards to CAR 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 24 for 12 yards (36-K.Crawford).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.47 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model