Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 86

Arizona Cardinals 27 – Carolina Panthers 15

(4:44) 12-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to CAR 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-36-K.Crawford.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.79 EP
50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 86, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model