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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 6-S.Martin punts 35 yards to ARI 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-53-C.Cherelus.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.77 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model