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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 56

Carolina Panthers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 27

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to ARI 42 for 14 yards (34-J.Thompson; 0-W.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model