Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 15 – Arizona Cardinals 27

(3:21) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 87-B.Tremayne to ARI 44 for 26 yards (34-J.Thompson) [25-Z.Collins].

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.84 EP
70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP