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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 11

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 38-C.Ryland 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model