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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 22

New Orleans Saints 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 19-B.Grupe 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.11 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model