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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
Sunday 2025-09-14 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

SF
56.3%
NO
43.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Spencer Rattler (NO) -0.269 vs Mac Jones (SF) -0.052 EPA/dropback (SF starting Mac Jones in place of Brock Purdy)
  • NO defense: +0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
NO 20
Projected margin: SF by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SF

Brock Purdy QB Out Shoulder
Trent Williams T Questionable Knee
Jauan Jennings WR Questionable Shoulder

NO

Julian Blackmon S Out Shoulder
Chase Young DE Out Calf
Trevor Penning G Out Toe
Taliese Fuaga T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 26
–
NO 21

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:32 TD SF (3:32) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 89-L.Farrell for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 11:27 FG SF (11:27) 18-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 9 – NO 0
  • Q2 01:20 TD NO (1:20) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass deep left to 83-J.Johnson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SF 9 – NO 6
  • Q2 00:11 TD SF (:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 15 – NO 7
  • Q3 07:15 TD NO (7:15) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – NO 13
  • Q3 03:24 FG SF (3:24) 18-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 19 – NO 14
  • Q4 12:26 TD SF (12:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 15-J.Jennings for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 25 – NO 14
  • Q4 06:21 TD NO (6:21) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 14-D.Vele for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – NO 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%

    (13:13) 19-B.Grupe 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:58) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to NO 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 40 for 19 yards (28-D.Luter).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%

    (11:28) 32-K.Kroeger punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 16 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:32) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to SF 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 87%

    (11:27) 18-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:17) 32-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to SF 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 9-S.Moore ran ob at SF 19 for 1 yard.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:58) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to NO 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 31 for 9 yards (48-T.Bethune). PENALTY on NO-27-I.Yiadom, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 26.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 92%

    (9:10) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler scrambles left end to SF 18 for 3 yards (53-D.Winters).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 85%

    (3:24) 18-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 42%

    (4:41) 7-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to NO 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 11 at the 90 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:12) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to NO 49, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-13-V.Jones.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 50%

    (2:47) 7-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to NO 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:03) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 34 for -8 yards (47-B.Huff). FUMBLES (47-B.Huff) [47-B.Huff], touched at NO 33, recovered by NO-51-C.Ruiz at NO 27.