4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 28

San Francisco 49ers 16 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 18-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.30 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP