Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 9 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to NO 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 31 for 9 yards (48-T.Bethune). PENALTY on NO-27-I.Yiadom, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.84 EP
67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model