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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 7 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(9:10) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler scrambles left end to SF 18 for 3 yards (53-D.Winters).

The Three Options

GO +2.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.73 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model