4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 41

New Orleans Saints 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 32-K.Kroeger punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.18 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model